Monday, March 10, 2008


I think people have given Rush Limbaugh too much credit. Based upon Exit Polls and media coverage of the people in the rural areas of Texas, neither Rush nor his Talk Radio Show was a major or even deciding factor of the election result. Contrary to the “Volunteer”, Robert Swann , whom worked for the Hillary Clinton Texas Campaign, there is this deep belief that a small percentage of Republican banded together, to throw the State’s election as a direct protest against John McCain, the Republican front-runner then and now Presidential Nominee. The truth is the matter us what made the difference in Texas was the last Debate between Sen. Barak Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton, the small but significant scandal with Obama and the Revko case which took center stage in Chicago that same week (where the media's perception of Obama was that of his avoiding answering questions of his direct connection to the case) and the fact that Texas is a Pro-War, Military and Veteran State which worked in Clinton's favor especially since she has a Liberal-Conservative viewpoint to War, Clinton’s 3 AM Political Ad and lastly, Obama’s complacency in campaigning in Texas. This meaning that although Texans like all things BIG, when it come to their politics, a “flesh to palm” and door-to-door works better that the star, stage and stadium approach. The populations of older voters do not turn on and turn out to the types of campaigning that Young Voters gravitate to.

Contrary to all assumptions, the issue with Race, Religion and Ads played very little into the whole voting issue since the deciding factor for Hillary's victory was that Obama did not cut ENOUGH into the Latino Vote. He did get a fair number of the Latin Youth vote but he was an estimated 3200 votes shy of their projections. With 83% of the Black vote, Obama needed 40% of the Latin Vote to even command a 50 plus 1% overall. Rush Limbaugh could not affect that many people (within the Democratic party) even on his BEST DAY. To consider that Ultra-Conservatives would vote for Hillary Clinton as a political stratagem to give Obama “FALSE HOPE” is almost laughable, more so it ranks up there with the Best of … The Texan Conspiracy Theories. There is no evidence and to be honest, no one is even researching all that hard to find out.

Another thing, the Religious Vote (Catholics) came out strong. Catholics voted more for Clinton in Texas than all her other State victories. For Obama, his projections were even with Clinton prior to Tuesday. Obama hit all his Urban Areas, the Middle-class and Wealthy, College age and Black Americans but his exception were those OLDER LATIN VOTER, which consistently keep missing. His camp made the same MAJOR MISTAKE in Ohio as well. It was in Obama’s campaign complacency and lack of presence in those Southern Texan districts, the people saw his lack of interest and in that black hole, Hillary’s campaign took charge. Those people watch TELAMUNDO; they saw a significant amount of that Clinton Ad. Like it or not, THE AD WORKED on the right people.

There was also this point as well, TEXAS did not have a record turn out in "Registered" Republican votes which would kind of make the Rush Limbaugh argument suspect. There was no major turnout of Republicans or Independents voting for Hillary Clinton. If anything, those borderline Independents and Republican Independents went Obama but in small numbers.

Looking at the MATH, it was going to be a tie from the start, especially since Texas began it’s voting early. It is always recognized that when a large number of votes are recorded early, there is a tendency for those voting late to stay home. We see this in National voting when the WEST COAST watched how the EAST COAST is voting which in some cases effect the whole election.

Lastly, THIS IS POLITICS not American Idol or Big Brother House. You have to be just as hard on the Media. Obama is the FRONT-RUNNER and every single stumble he makes (and OBAMA did stumble by not running a STRONG campaign in Texas among other things) you can't blame the "CLINTONS" nor can you point to Rush Limbaugh as a "serious" contributing factor. That is the easy and most Obvious thing to do when one does not understand the dynamics of running a campaign. My Political insight into campaigning is this for Obama, he needs to aggressively reach out to OLDER AMERICANS and to the Latinos and MILITARY Veterans that he keeps ignoring. This is what each group talk about, the idea that OBAMA isn't speaking to them and only the BLACKS and the Young Folks. Those groups are the SWING votes that are either voting for Clinton or John McCain. He also needs to make an appeal to Catholic Voters whom bring in Big Numbers to Clinton.

Instead of Preaching he has GOOD or BETTER Judgment, Obama needs to start talking about Current International Issues in detail and what He Will Do once he becomes President. Neither Clinton nor Obama has ENOUGH individual Foreign Policy experience BUT if you start talking about Foreign Policy in terms of THE PEOPLE , America will know that Obama at least know the NAMES of the major players. Obama needs to have more of his Foreign Policy Advisers come forward and begin schooling him in speaking PUBLICLY about World Events. That is why Coni Rice was brought on board for George Bush in his race for President and partly how he won. Same thing must happen with Obama, those on the fence do not feel he knows the World enough to speak to it. That is WHY and HOW he lost Texas, Ohio and RI, NOT because Clinton is Racist or a Fear Monger; all she did was play to Obama's weaknesses and exploited his campaign's complacency.

As much as I dislike Rush Limbaugh, I will always be convinced that people gave him too much credit, especially with his assumed affluence with Texan politics. This is a Man identified by his own Republican party as a "Man who does not debate in Reality", a shotgun Political Pundit which every mainstream Republican distances themselves from. Looking at the numbers after the fact, you will see, especially when you can go to the CNN exit poll for all the statistics, that what was proposed by Rush was and is incorrect.

1 comment:

jjbrock said...

Poet, what a great article. I agree that Racist Rush Limbaugh did not have anything to do with what happen in Texas. He don't have that much power to sway voters he, give him self too much credit.

I agree the exit polls had already given the votes to Clinton so that wasn't that much of a surprise. Obama needs to step up his game he don't know that he is playing for keeps.